倖存者偏差Survivorship bias「死人不會說話」
倖存者偏差,Survivorship bias,另譯「生存者偏差」或「存活者偏差」。
可以用俗語「死人不會說話」來解釋成因。
倖存者偏差Survivorship bias意思是指,「當取得資訊之管道,僅來自於倖存者時,因為死人不會說話,資訊可能有與實際情況不同的偏差。」
倖存者偏差Survivorship bias常見於投資理財、財務金融之節目或文章,例如當投資理財之電視節目僅僅邀請投資成功者上節目談論成功投資之經驗,觀眾會將成功投資者投資之方式,視為高成功率之投資方式,但是觀眾並不會在電視節目看到相同或類似投資方式,反而失敗的投資者,因而高估此投資方式之成功機率。
Survivorship bias is a type of selection bias.
Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways. The survivors may literally be people, as in a medical study, or could be companies or research subjects or applicants for a job, or anything that must make it past some selection process to be considered further.
Survivorship bias can lead to overly optimistic beliefs because failures are ignored, such as when companies that no longer exist are excluded from analyses of financial performance. It can also lead to the false belief that the successes in a group have some special property, rather than just coincidence. For example, if the three of the five students with the best college grades went to the same high school, that can lead one to believe that the high school must offer an excellent education. This could be true, but the question cannot be answered without looking at the grades of all the other students from that high school, not just the ones who "survived" the top-five selection process.
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